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The Power of the Latino
Vote
July 2010 - Latinos, the largest and fasting growing minority group in
the United States, were instrumental in electing the last two presidents
of the United States. The power of the Latino vote will continue to have
a vital impact in the outcome of many political elections in the U.S.
If tends keep with the present pace, few politicians in this country will
be able to hold an elected position without winning the Latino vote.
According to the National Council of La Raza, between 1990 and 2000, the
Latino population experienced a growth rate of 57.9 percent, compared
to 13.2 percent nationwide. Census figures today show 46.9 million Latinos
make up 15.4 percent of the total U.S. population. By 2050 more than 130
million Latinos will live in the U.S., about 30 percent of the population
or 1 in 4 residents.
In 2008, the Latino electorate grew to an estimated 12.1 million registered
voters and cast an estimated 9.7 million votes in the November Presidential
election, according to the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI). This
estimated total of 12.1 million registered Latino voters in 2008 represents
an increase of 2.8 million since 2006, or a 30.5 percent increase, making
it the largest numerical increase in U.S. Latino voter registration history.
The jump in Latino voter registration was driven by California and Texas,
which in 2008 contained an estimated 50 percent of the U.S. Latino vote.
In California, Latino voter registration increased by 18 percent since
2006. In Texas, Latino voter registration increased by 19.7 percent since
2006.
In the 2008 General Election, nine states which voted for Republican President
George W. Bush in 2004 supported Democratic U.S. Senator Barack Obama
in 2008: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina,
Ohio, and Virginia. Latino voters are credited with helping propel Obama
to victory in states like Indiana and New Mexico.
WCVI Latino voter polls for the 2008 Presidential Election showed then-Senator
Obama was supported by a 68.6 percent to 28.7 percent for Senator McCain.
These statistics are supported by a CNN National exit poll, which found
a 67 percent to 31 percent spread between Obama and McCain among Latino
voters.
President Obama recognized the help he received from Latinos by appointing
some to visible positions, including U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonya
Sotomayor, Labor Secretary Hilda Solís, and Interior Secretary
Ken Salazar.
Although Latinos were the largest minority population in September 2007,
they were not the largest minority group among eligible voters. African-Americans
were about 12 percent of eligible voters at that time, in comparison to
whites who were 74 percent.
A report entitled “The Power of the Latino Vote in America”
by America’s Voice, a pro-immigrant group, notes the Latino vote
in 2010 will be an important factor in a an increasing number of upcoming
congressional races across the country. The group argues that how both
political parties handle the issue of comprehensive immigration reform
will have a serious impact on Latino political behavior.
Some politicians undercut the political clout of Latinos because a large
number are not eligible to vote because of citizenship status or are not
yet 18 years old. Estimates show that in 2008 Latinos made up 9 percent
of the electorate nationwide. The Latino population as a whole is very
young and more Latinos become eligible to vote each year and others eventually
become naturalize citizens gaining the right to vote.
According to figures from the America’s Voice report, between 2000
and 2008 Latino voter registration grew 54 percent and turnout grew 64
percent. In the 2004 presidential race, 7.5 million Latinos voted. In
the 2006 midterm election, 8 million voted, and in the 2008 presidential
race, 10 million cast ballots.
A 2007 report by the Pew Hispanic Center found some 57 percent of Hispanic
registered voters called themselves Democrats or said they leaned to the
Democratic Party, while 23 percent were aligned with the Republican Party.
That 34-percentage point gap between Democratic and Republican Latinos
was compared to a 21-point gap in July 2006.
The Republican portion of the Latino vote has declined in three straight
national elections. However, President George W. Bush drew an estimated
40 percent of the national Latino vote in 2004 - a record for a Republican
presidential candidate.
Latinos make up at least 25 percent of the population in nearly one in
five congressional districts, according to America’s Voice. In the
2010-midterm elections the group suggests Latino voters will be a potentially
decisive force in 37 House and Senate races, plus contests for governor
in California, Colorado and Texas.
The report also states Latino voters may be pivotal in eight Senate races,
including Arizona where Republican Sen. John McCain is trying to keep
his seat and where a controversial immigration law has gained national
attention.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey showed that while all respondents
back the Arizona law by almost 2-to-1, 70 percent of Latino voters oppose
it, with eight in 10 saying they believe it's likely to lead to discrimination
against legal immigrants.
In a May 2009 poll of Latino voters by Bendixen & Associates, 82 percent
of Latino voters said that the immigration issue is important to them
and their families, and 69 percent said that they personally know someone
who is undocumented.
"Most politicians understand the importance of the Latino vote in
presidential years, but what we're saying is that Latino voters will have
a huge impact in the mid-term elections," Frank Sharry, executive
director of America's Voice said in February.
Statistics clearly indicate Latinos will continue to be a political powerhouse
in the U.S. for many decades to come.
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